Sunday, 5 April 2015

An Experiment done in 2011

Going through Banking & Finance modules back in university was seriously boring and all the Sharpe ratio, efficient market hypothesis and CAPM etc are just theoretical subjects which I have grown to appreciate now. Hence I decided to start an experiment in 2011 when I landed my first job in an asset management house. The experiment would be to invest a sum of USD$100,000 - virtual of course! into US equities that were showing signs of recovery due to the 2008 - 2009 sub-prime mortgage crisis. Equities were "cheap" in value back then compared to now and hence I got a demo portfolio started in Investopedia simulator. Lets see...


An annual return of 11.77%! Now I'm neither Warren Buffett nor Bill Ackman and with little to minimal knowledge of investing back in 2011. So what made me select those equities that were on the list back then? To buy something - you need to know what its worth hence if you can get 50c on the dollar, why not? Amateurish analysis but its a powerful tool to have and sometimes when it comes to investing, simplicity is the best form to generate returns. If I were to apply it in today's markets with the same securities, I can be sure the results would have been different as valuations have soared due to QE etc. thus the risk/reward wouldn't have been so enticing.

Question is - will I be buying all these companies at fantastic discounts to their book value if I was to use real money instead?

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